El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

774
FXUS64 KEPZ 191126
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
526 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 514 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

 - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue with highest
   chances favoring Monday and Tuesday.

 - Near normal late July temperatures, lowland highs in the upper
   nineties to one hundred degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A sprawling area of high pressure extending from the Atlantic
westward with us on its eastern edge along with a closed low off
the Baja Coast has funneled moisture northward into much of NM and
Far West TX. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing this evening as some sort of hard-to-detect/ determine UL
disturbance approaches and moves through the area. Convective
showers and thunderstorms will likely continue into the early
morning hours before gradually dissipating.

Going into Friday, UL ridging will center near the Red River of
OK/ TX which will push dry, subsiding flow into at least the
eastern half of the CWA. Western areas will see better moisture,
but the HRRR is indicating a down day for those areas too given
subsidence from a decaying MCV (reasonable given the widespread
showers and storms this evening). Also, normally, without UL
forcing, it is normal for there to be a relatively quiet day
following an active day. Thus, expect isolated to scattered
storms, but I think most locations will stay dry.

Monsoonal moisture will continue to rotate around the high this
weekend with the better moisture channel expected to re-center
over much of the CWA by Sunday. Normally this would suggest an
increase in convective coverage, but offsetting the better
moisture will be increased warming and subsidence from the UL
high. We will continue to see isolated to scattered storms. For
Saturday, western areas will see better coverage / chances,
becoming more widespread for Sunday.

By Monday, the GFS and to a lesser degree the Euro show a broad
UL trough moving north from Mexico through the area, leading to
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage. NBM is on board with
this scenario with the highest widespread POPs showing up on
Monday. The weak trough or maybe even closed low will be slow to
exit with Tuesday only showing a small decrease in POPs (~60% to
~50%).

UL high will begin to form toward the Four Corners mid-week onward
while a more dominate high remains centered well to our east
leaving us within a weakness in the ridge and a continued stream
of moisture. Nevertheless, models show this ridge consolidating
either to our north or northeast by the weekend while drawing in
some drier air, thus, lowering POPs. The NBM had single-digit POPs
for next Friday afternoon though a view of the LREF shows most
members having us hold on to normal or just above normal PWAT
values (at or above 1"), so I brought up POPs to at least have
mention of thunder given time of year as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

With clearing skies and light winds after last night`s rain,
patchy fog may develop early in the period and reduce VIS.
Confidence is too low for any mention of fog, but KDMN is most
likely to see the obstruction due to humidity near 100%. Any fog
that develops will mix out after sunrise with mostly SKC into the
afternoon. A few showers and storms initiate over the higher
terrain this afternoon, mainly avoiding the terminals. KTCS is
most favored to see TS later today with a stray shower or storm
possible for the other terminals. Outside of afternoon gusts at
KTCS and outflows, winds remain AOB 8kts from W-SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the middle of next week
as monsoonal moisture remains over the region. Storm chances will
be favored west of the Rio Grande this weekend where the moisture
plume is situated, shifting to the east early next week with the
best moisture. There is a low risk of heavy rainfall where storm
chances are higher, especially on recent burn scars. Drier air
looks to move into the region later next week, lowering rain
chances areawide and warming temperatures somewhat. Outside of
gusty outflows, winds will be light from the south-southwest each
day with relative humidity above critical levels. Temperatures
stay around normal through the middle of next week.

Min RHs will be 20-35% through the first half of the week below
7500ft, 30-50% above 7500ft. Vent rates range from fair to very
good through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  77 100  75 /  10  20  10  40
Sierra Blanca            93  68  93  68 /  10  10  20  40
Las Cruces               95  69  96  69 /  20  30  10  50
Alamogordo               95  71  96  70 /  20  10  20  20
Cloudcroft               72  53  74  53 /  30  10  50  20
Truth or Consequences    93  70  95  70 /  40  30  40  40
Silver City              88  62  88  62 /  60  60  70  60
Deming                   97  70  98  70 /  30  50  30  60
Lordsburg                93  68  93  67 /  50  60  60  70
West El Paso Metro       96  75  98  74 /  10  20  10  40
Dell City                97  72  98  72 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             99  75 100  75 /  20  20  20  50
Loma Linda               90  69  91  67 /  10  10  10  30
Fabens                   97  74  98  73 /  10  20  10  40
Santa Teresa             95  73  96  72 /  10  20  10  50
White Sands HQ           96  75  98  73 /  20  20  20  40
Jornada Range            95  70  97  70 /  20  30  20  40
Hatch                    97  69  98  70 /  30  40  30  50
Columbus                 96  72  97  72 /  30  50  30  60
Orogrande                93  71  95  70 /  10  10  20  30
Mayhill                  83  58  84  59 /  30  10  40  20
Mescalero                83  58  85  58 /  40  10  50  20
Timberon                 81  57  82  57 /  20  10  30  20
Winston                  85  57  86  57 /  50  40  70  50
Hillsboro                93  64  93  64 /  40  50  50  60
Spaceport                94  67  95  67 /  30  30  30  40
Lake Roberts             88  57  88  57 /  60  60  80  60
Hurley                   90  64  90  63 /  60  50  60  60
Cliff                    94  65  95  64 /  60  60  70  60
Mule Creek               89  63  91  62 /  60  50  70  60
Faywood                  90  65  90  64 /  50  50  60  60
Animas                   93  68  93  67 /  60  60  70  70
Hachita                  92  67  93  67 /  50  60  60  70
Antelope Wells           90  65  90  66 /  60  60  70  80
Cloverdale               85  62  85  62 /  70  60  80  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson