El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

958
FXUS64 KEPZ 100437
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1037 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025

-  Thunderstorms with better rain chances arrive Sunday and Monday
   as upper level disturbances take advantage of recycled moisture
   over the area.

-  Temperatures will begin decreasing a little, but most lowland
   areas will hold onto highs in the middle to upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Continued showery activity looks to persist for a few more hours
tonight. HRRR continues to illustrate fairly cloudy skies
throughout the morning from overnight storms which will help do a
couple things for the area - help cool off temperatures but this
will also block sunlight from heating the surface. Surface heating
and terrain influences are how this area in particular can
develop monsoonal thunderstorms. With this forcing mechanism
mostly gone (if the cloud cover does indeed stick around), CAMs
have been hinting at a much more active day tomorrow afternoon.
The persistent upper high that brought us hot conditions lately
will continue to fizzle away tonight and is basically gone by
Sunday afternoon. This is due to an upper trough that has been
hanging around the US/Canadian border. A trough axis looks to be
the primary forcing mechanism for storms tomorrow. Storm chances
look pretty good tomorrow afternoon for the entirety of the CWA.
PW values are hovering at near normal values (0.9"-1.0") with
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. DCAPEs are still expected to be well
over 1000J/kg leading to more gusty outflow winds generally up to
50 mph near storms. The continued influence of the trough axis
looks to keep overnight activity pushing from the north to south
and finally looks to exit the area by the late evening/early
morning hours.

Just a slight uptick in moisture with PWs around 1"-1.1". High
pressure looks to redevelop over central California with lingering
trough energy nearby the area. This will place the area under
northerly flow which has been notorious for overperforming due to
the added shear it brings. In addition, we do have a bit of
diffluence overhead which will help bring additional lift. Drier
air does look to push in from the north Monday afternoon for
northern portions of the area which will add to the wind gust
threat with storms in that area, but with moisture lacking - this
could prevent storms from forming. CAMs show a downtick in
activity Monday but with the added other ingredients, the storms
that do form could over perform. Localized flash flooding
possible with gusty outflow winds generally up to 50 mph near
storms. Heading into Tuesday, high pressure keeps us under
northerly flow with PWs around average to slightly above average.
Continued monsoonal thunderstorms can be expected perhaps with a
slight increased risk for flooding with storms. Flow becomes weak
Wednesday as a trough looks to push onshore over central
California which will fizzle away any high pressure that was
lingering near the area. Both the EC and GFS are in relatively
good agreement with this trough arriving around late in the work
week. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida
tries to reestablish itself which would put the monsoonal plume
of moisture somewhere over the desert SW. Models right now suggest
the plume is over us but will need to wait for newer data to see
where the high and low pressure systems set up as this will
determine where the plume will be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Lingering showery activity looks to continue the next few hours
with much of the t-storm threat now too far south of terminals.
Models are suggesting an outflow pushing from the southern NM/AZ
border tracking west to east the next few hours which could bring
some minor gustiness (15G25KT) to KDMN. Otherwise, winds will be
fairly calm AOB 10KT tonight. A bit more active of a thunderstorm
day expected tomorrow afternoon where all terminals have a shot to
see a storm. Gusty outflow winds up to 43KT and locally heavy
rain will be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025

The hot and dry conditions will loosen their grip on the area
Sunday. Scattered to isolated thunderstorms with a risk of dry
lightning are expected this afternoon across the higher terrain
of the Gila and Sacramentos, and any storms will be accompanied by
gusty outflow winds as well.

Sunday through Tuesday, increasing moisture will lead to
scattered thunderstorms spreading into the lowlands. Moisture will
increase, and with it the chances for wetting rainfall and
localized heavier downpours.

Precip chances will diminish for Wednesday and Thursday, but with
lingering thunderstorms chances focused over the higher terrain.
A more typical monsoon moisture plume looks to set up over the
region towards next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 105  77 100  74 /  10  20  30  30
Sierra Blanca            99  68  97  67 /  10  10  30  30
Las Cruces              101  72  97  67 /  10  40  30  40
Alamogordo              101  72  98  67 /  10  20  30  30
Cloudcroft               78  56  75  50 /  30  20  50  30
Truth or Consequences   101  73  97  67 /  20  20  40  30
Silver City              95  64  92  61 /  50  30  50  40
Deming                  103  71 101  67 /  10  30  30  30
Lordsburg               101  68  97  66 /  20  40  40  30
West El Paso Metro      102  77  99  72 /  10  20  30  30
Dell City               103  71 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Hancock            104  74 101  73 /  10  10  30  30
Loma Linda               96  69  92  66 /  10  10  30  30
Fabens                  102  73 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
Santa Teresa            101  73  98  70 /  10  20  30  40
White Sands HQ          102  75  99  70 /  10  30  30  40
Jornada Range           101  72  97  66 /  10  40  30  40
Hatch                   102  72 100  67 /  20  30  40  40
Columbus                103  74 100  69 /  10  30  30  40
Orogrande               100  72  96  67 /  10  20  30  40
Mayhill                  89  61  86  55 /  40  20  40  20
Mescalero                90  61  86  54 /  30  20  50  30
Timberon                 86  59  82  54 /  20  20  30  30
Winston                  93  61  89  55 /  30  30  50  40
Hillsboro               101  68  96  62 /  30  40  40  40
Spaceport               101  69  97  64 /  20  30  40  30
Lake Roberts             95  60  91  56 /  40  40  50  50
Hurley                   97  66  93  61 /  40  30  50  40
Cliff                   102  66  97  63 /  30  40  50  40
Mule Creek               98  64  93  61 /  30  40  50  40
Faywood                  97  68  93  62 /  30  40  50  40
Animas                  101  68  97  66 /  40  50  40  30
Hachita                 101  68  97  65 /  20  40  40  40
Antelope Wells           99  67  96  64 /  30  40  40  50
Cloverdale               94  64  90  62 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher