El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

579
FXUS64 KEPZ 191748
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1148 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday with
    lowland highs 100 to 103, becoming cooler next week as
    moisture arrives.

 -  Low end chances for thunderstorms through Saturday favoring
    the area mountains. More widespread coverage early next week.

 -  Flash flooding may become an issue for the early and middle
    part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

High pressure will continue to spin and elongate over the south
central CONUS tonight and into tomorrow as a potent low edges into
the PacNW. The low`s trek inland will help to usher the kidney bean-
shaped high into eastern TX by Friday morning, allowing for pressure
heights to begin falling across the Desert Southwest. While
temperatures will continue to flirt with the century mark across the
lowland deserts, we will see a degree or two decrease nearly
areawide compared to today`s readings. Recycled moisture could give
way to a storm or two across the Sacramento Mts in the afternoon.
While Tds aren`t too incredibly low, the Td depression is still wide
enough that strong and erratic wind gusts could result.

The low pressure swings inland and towards the Great Basin Saturday,
allowing pressure heights to drop from the oppressive 594dam seen on
Thursday to a more reasonable 589dam by Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a slug of moisture begins to snake up the Chihuahuan
Desert and into the Borderland. These two things in concert will
allow temperatures to cool further, ending the reign of triple digit
highs. They`ll still make their mark, however, but will remain
localized to the RGV and desert valleys. The continued influx of
moisture will bring an increase in coverage to afternoon
thunderstorms, which will favor the high terrain but especially the
Sacs. Meanwhile, pressure heights will tighten across western NM and
dry air will work to intrude western zones. Surface wind speeds will
likely increase as a result. The forecast challenge will be the
extent of the dry air intrusion against the moisture plume. Timing
and placement of these two features will dictate exactly how strong
winds will be, along with the coverage of storms.

The system will continue its tour of the Great Basin on Sunday,
forcing pressure heights even lower. The result will be cooler
temperatures areawide again, with existence of the century mark
becoming incredibly localized. The monsoon-like plume of moisture
will strengthen, allowing coverage of storms to increase even
further, favoring eastern zones. PWATs rise to an inch and greater
amongst mean flow that is only brisk closer to the eastern periphery
of the trough. This could create some issues with burn scar flash
flooding, should a slow-moving storm get the Salt or Seven Springs
burn areas in its crosshairs. Thankfully, flow will increase Monday
through the remainder of the week. The parent system morphs into an
amplified trough Tuesday, pulling moisture along its eastern
periphery all the way into the Great Lakes. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will take hold Tuesday through the remainder of the
forecast period. You might be asking, "Is this the monsoon?" It`s
definitely moving in that direction, with signal of our friend, the
Four Corners High, attempting to establish itself further towards
the end of guidance. Regardless of the formality, all monsoon-
related hazards will be on the menu throughout the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Breezy ely to
sly winds to prevail this aftn with typical gusts under 20 kts.
Isold convection will be possible over the high terrain in the
aftn, diminishing aft sunset. A trough moving into the Great
Basin will bring LLWS to wrn terminals overnight. Breezy winds may
persist later into the evening, tapering off aft 20/06Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist into the weekend for
portions of west central and southwest New Mexico. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow, with
storms firing on the western edge of the forecast area trending
drier. This will increase the risk for dry lightning, as well as
gusty and erratic outflow winds. A trough moving into the Great
Basin will allow winds to strengthen into the weekend across
western zones. This in concert with extreme dryness will lead to
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions through Sunday.
A healthy tap of moisture will also begin moving into the
Borderland this weekend, allowing for coverage of storms to
increase, becoming widespread Monday through the remainder of the
forecast period. Storm motions on Sunday could trend slower,
especially in and around the Salt burn scar and the Seven Springs
fire. This will likely enhance the risk of burn scar flash
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  79 103  79 /   0  10  10  20
Sierra Blanca            96  67  95  69 /  10  10   0  10
Las Cruces              101  71 101  70 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo               98  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               76  53  77  55 /  20  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences   101  73 101  71 /   0   0  10  10
Silver City              95  66  94  63 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                  105  71 103  69 /   0  10  10  10
Lordsburg               103  71 102  66 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      101  78 101  78 /   0  10  10  20
Dell City                98  71 100  72 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            103  75 103  76 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda               94  69  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                  103  75 103  76 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Teresa            101  75 100  74 /   0  10  10  20
White Sands HQ          101  76 101  76 /   0  10  10  20
Jornada Range           101  70 100  68 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                   103  70 103  67 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                104  74 103  74 /   0   0  10  20
Orogrande                98  71  99  72 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  85  56  86  59 /  20  10  20  10
Mescalero                87  57  87  59 /  20  10  20  10
Timberon                 85  54  85  55 /  10  10  10  10
Winston                  93  59  92  56 /  10   0  10   0
Hillsboro               100  66  99  65 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport               100  67 100  65 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             96  61  93  58 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   99  66  97  63 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                   103  67 100  62 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek               98  64  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  97  67  97  66 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                  103  68 102  67 /   0   0  10  10
Hachita                 102  69 101  67 /   0  10  10  20
Antelope Wells          102  69  99  69 /   0  10  10  20
Cloverdale               98  69  96  66 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...99