El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS64 KEPZ 282358
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
558 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Low storm chances east of the Rio Grande through Thursday with
    potential for gusty winds and blowing dust.

 -  Better chances for rain across the whole area this weekend.

 -  Seasonal temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

What is typically a low confidence pattern as far as timing and
main features go, models are actually in pretty good agreement,
even as things get messy going into the weekend. The pattern
starts out with an upper low cutting off near northern Baja and
stalls out for a couple of days. This allows for moisture to move
back and forth mainly over eastern portions of our CWA. Models
agree on dryline tonight not making it quite as far last night
with a stall out near the RGV. Do not expect much thunderstorm
activity in the area past sunset if it is even around by 00Z.
Tomorrow mixing will occur pretty quick and do not see any storms
west of an KALM to Sierra Blanca line. NBM PoPs were brought down,
especially over El Paso and western Otero counties. Temperatures
will warm up to near 100 in El Paso and mid to upper 90s for the
remainder of the lowlands.

Pretty strong 1020mb high moves into the Southern Plains and will
help push the moisture further west Friday morning. This will keep
an east to southeast surface wind going through the day to around
the Continental Divide and with the area being put in a
stretching deformation zone, should get at least scattered storms
to develop over the mountains and southeast areas. The EC has come
in line with a fairly stout outflow moving north out of Mexico
around 00Z which should be the focus for the best storm chances
going into Fri night. This will leave some lingering moisture
around for Sat but there is a weak ridge axis forecast to extend
NW-SE across area. Tapered PoPs down slightly here as well. There
will be a cool down of about 3-8 degrees across the area or Sat.

Things get more complicated going into Sun/Mon as the cutoff low
starts to lift out of the Baja region while at the same time
trying to tap some moisture from a decaying tropical system.
Focus Sun afternoon will be further west and as we go into Monday,
storm coverage will shift east. Again, NBM PoPs, especially east
seemed too high at around 70 with this type of pattern which could
easily slow down some more. GFS is fastest lifting out the trough
faster and has most of the precip done by late Mon morning while
the EC is slower and keeps things around through the day Mon.
Given these upper lows are prone to slow down their movement, will
keep PoPs going over area through the day.

The remainder of the forecast period will have a couple of troughs
passing to our north and we are back in a more spring like pattern
with breezy to windy days. How much dust we get will depend on how
much and where rain occurs over the coming days. Temperatures will
remain near average during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

VFR conditions expected to persist at all terminals through the
period. Today`s round of storms across the region, looking done
for the day. Thus just some fair weather cumulus clouds AOB 100,
with some invading cirrus at 250 from the west. Lower clouds will
dissipate through 04-06z with skies ranging from SKC to FEW250.
Winds will be light and variable, with speeds AOB 05-08kts btwn
03-15Z. Aft 18z winds favoring 180-240 in the 08-12kt range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025

Temperatures will be warm to hot over the coming days but winds
will not be a significant issue except near thunderstorms. This
afternoon and Thursday look to be the quieter days for storms with
just some isolated ones out east. RH`s will be falling into the
mid single digits out west and remain in the mid to upper teens
east. Precip chances increase starting Friday with RH`s getting
above 15%. An upper low will start lifting out of the Baja region
Sunday and tap some decent moisture bringing the best chance for
widespread rainfall. Breezy to windy conditions return for early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  99  69  93 /  10  10  20  40
Sierra Blanca            62  92  60  85 /  10  30  30  60
Las Cruces               60  95  62  91 /   0  10  10  40
Alamogordo               60  94  60  92 /   0  10  20  30
Cloudcroft               48  69  47  69 /   0  30  20  50
Truth or Consequences    61  94  63  92 /   0  10  10  30
Silver City              56  87  59  87 /   0   0  10  20
Deming                   54  97  62  94 /   0   0  10  40
Lordsburg                57  94  59  92 /   0   0  10  30
West El Paso Metro       68  97  68  91 /  10  10  10  40
Dell City                63  93  62  85 /  10  30  20  40
Fort Hancock             65 100  65  94 /  10  20  20  50
Loma Linda               62  88  61  84 /  10  20  20  40
Fabens                   66 100  66  93 /  10  10  20  40
Santa Teresa             64  95  65  90 /   0  10  10  40
White Sands HQ           68  97  68  92 /   0  10  10  40
Jornada Range            56  95  60  92 /   0  10  10  40
Hatch                    58  97  61  94 /   0  10  10  40
Columbus                 63  97  64  93 /   0   0  10  40
Orogrande                63  93  63  89 /  10  20  20  40
Mayhill                  52  79  50  79 /  10  40  20  50
Mescalero                53  80  50  80 /   0  30  20  50
Timberon                 49  78  49  77 /  10  30  20  40
Winston                  46  86  48  85 /   0  10  10  30
Hillsboro                58  93  58  91 /   0  10  10  30
Spaceport                56  93  58  91 /   0  10  10  30
Lake Roberts             40  86  43  88 /   0  10  10  20
Hurley                   53  90  55  88 /   0   0  10  30
Cliff                    44  91  46  94 /   0   0  10  20
Mule Creek               42  89  44  90 /   0   0  10  20
Faywood                  55  90  60  88 /   0   0  10  30
Animas                   58  95  59  92 /   0   0  10  30
Hachita                  58  94  59  91 /   0   0  10  30
Antelope Wells           58  93  58  92 /   0   0  10  30
Cloverdale               59  88  59  87 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird